Teheran and Tiananmen, III

Events in Iran have reached a new stage. The defiant Saturday demonstrations and protests, which came after Supreme Leader Khamenei called for a return to normalcy, are a direct challenge not only to Ahmadinejad but to the very basis of state legitimacy.  The people are now defying the Supreme Leader, and by their actions they are rejecting his authority.   This is the functional equivalent of the April 27th marches in Beijing twenty years ago.  Then, students took to the streets in direct violation of Deng Xiaoping's call for order (scroll down for my other posts that make this comparison).

Thus, we have half of what is needed for the movement to succeed (and success here I take to be a fairly significant political change - the forced resignation of Ahmadinejad for example).  It is, of course, impossible to predict.  But the populace has clearly demonstrated its rejection of the political status quo.  The other thing that must now follow is a more fundamental rupture within the political elite.  If the leadership remains fairly united, or if a split is resolved in favor of hardliners, then we may well have a Tiananmen style escalation of state violence against the people.  I dearly hope that does not happen.  But to avoid that, and secure some sort of political victory, the reformist forces must hold firm and bring at least some sectors of the security apparatus over to their side.  This will depend on political dynamics that we will not see in the streets.  It will take place in the halls of power, as various key players assess the national situation and figure out how to align themselves.  If some combination of Mousavi and Rafsanjani can convince other senior leaders that larger scale violence will do irreparable harm to the regime, then political change might be possible.  Zhao Ziyang failed, ultimately, in this regard.  Let's hope Iranian reformers have better luck.

Alternatively, reformers could decide to back down, take a longer view and try to consolidate their political positions for the future.  This might fail politically (they could be out-maneuvered by Ahmadinejad down the road), but it could be a way of avoiding larger scale bloodshed.

Reports in the US press suggest that political divisions in the elite are deepening.  This might be wishful thinking on the part of Western analysts.  But it might also be true.  Indeed, the statement by the Guardian Council (h/t TPM) admitting that some 3 million votes in fifty cities may have been fraudulent could be seen as a first step in a move away from Ahmadinejad.  We'll see.

In the meantime, let's remember those who struggle for justice in Iran.  Remember Neda.

Comments

[Rosie]

i'm really sorry for this girl. luckily something like that would never happen in America.

would it?

[Rosie]

Iranians are showing a lot more courage than we are. As you said, "The people are now defying the Supreme Leader, and by their actions they are rejecting his authority", which is a lot more corageous and responsible than what we do around here.

[Rosie]

i salute the iranian people's courage.

[Raff]

If there were an escalation of state violence against the people would the world (largely meaning the West) react differently than it did toward China in 1989? Apparently the US and the UK are already 'meddling' in Iranian affairs, according to Ahmadinejad, do you think there could be more interference?