Friday I Ching: Hurricanes and the Mandate of Heaven

     The idea, derived from an ancient Chinese worldview, that natural disasters might tell us something about the effectiveness or legitimacy of the highest national leaders has popped up recently in stories about the political effects of hurricane Katrina on President Bush.  The traditional notion of "Mandate of Heaven" is more nuanced than the simple idea that natural disaster means loss of legitimacy; the Mandate is rooted in how well people are being treated and protected and served by their government.  It is in that way, as seen in the pictures of terrible suffering after Katrina, that it is reasonable to raise the question of whether the hurricane signaled a political failing on the part of President Bush.

     And now we face another storm: this one aimed right at Bush's home state of Texas.  So, even though I was not quite willing to directly engage the Mandate of Heaven question last time, it is hard to escape this time.

    I will avoid framing the question in a way that might elicit a stark "yes" or "no" answer (this on the advice of some readers who believe that the best questions are more open-ended).  So, here is the question: what does this second hurricane suggest for President Bush's hold on the Mandate of Heaven?

     And the answer is: Bush can maintain the Mandate, but he must appoint a strong leader to oversee hurricane relief.  He cannot manage reconstruction himself and if he tries to do so without appointing an effective subordinate administrator, he could lose the Mandate.

    This is a great reading: Hexagram 3, "Difficulty at the Beginning," with pure yang lines in the first and fifth positions, and a pure yin line in the second position, thus tending toward Hexagram 7, "The Army."

    What is great about it is the uncanny appropriateness of "Difficulty at the Beginning" (that is from the Wilhelm translation; the Lynn translation names this hexagram "Birth Throes"): it is the combination of symbols for water and thunder; it describes a storm!  And that storm depicts a time of great difficulty, like the difficulty of a thing struggling to be born.  So, the sense here is also a beginning.  This has some resonances - not linguistically but conceptually - with the idea that crisis brings opportunity: the time is bleak now, thunder and rain and chaos are all around, but as the storm passes there is a chance to create something new, something good.

    Of course, the trick is how to draw something good out of chaos.  And the oracle gives fairly precise advice to Bush for how to handle the difficulties he and the country face.  First off, he should not rush into action; quick response is the job of others (a job that was done very poorly for Katrina and will hopefully be better handled for Rita).  His job is to hold back, get a sense of the big picture and concentrate on finding an effective subordinate to oversee recovery.  There is an interesting call for both action and non-action in this response, and I think the general idea is for Bush to be calm and give off a sense of patient attention, while a new chief of hurricane recovery springs into action.  This interpretation is drawn from Lynn's translation of the first Yang line:

One should tarry here.  It is fitting to abide in constancy.  It is fitting to establish a chief.

   And the commentary of Wang Bi (an ancient thinker) on this line:

One brings cessation to chaos by means of quietude, and one maintains quietude by means of a chief.

    Even if Bush finds the right person to whom to delegate authority and manage the government's response, success is not guaranteed.  This is a long term issue.  In the second yin line there is an image of a chaste young woman resisting a marriage proposal because circumstances are not right, the "correct Dao does not function " (Lynn, 154).  She waits ten years until there is a "return to the constant Dao" and then accepts betrothal.  Ten years.  That's a long time.  Hurricane recovery is long-term.

   The tendency toward Hexagram 7, "The Army," reinforces the general message of Hexagram 3.  The key here is the importance of a commander, one who knows how to raise and lead an army and also fulfills the confidence of his ruler.  There is also advice here for how the commander should relate to the people: he must attend to economic prosperity and humanity.  If he does not, the entire project could fail.

    So, Bush must appoint the right person to address the long-term problems of hurricane recovery and that person must do the right thing by attending to the material and moral needs of the people.  If all that goes right, Bush will retain the Mandate of Heaven; and, by implication, if any of this goes wrong, Bush could permanently lose the Mandate.

 

Comments

[Steve]

Rulers lose the Mandate of Heaven before their dynasty falls, rather than at the moment of losing office, which simply makes it plain. The reason a dynasty falls is because they have already lost the Mandate. I think your question is based on the assumption that Bush has the Mandate to begin with, simply because he is in office. The present Chinese government, for instance, are in office on the basis that the Mandate of Heaven came to an end, in 1911. I don't think you can equate merely being in office with holding the Mandate of Heaven.

That said, these hurricanes are exposing poor government, which is exactly what equivalent omens in the past did, although then it was taken for granted that this was the meaning of the omen, whereas today it simply becomes apparent.

[Sam]

Steve,
Thanks for your comment. It is really a pleasure to have you participate here, given your deep knowledge on precisely this question. For those not familiar with it, Steve's book, The Mandate of Heaven, can be found here:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0231122993/qid=1127496870/sr=2-2/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_2/104-4677773-3990308?v=glance&s=books
(the whole address should be captured if you click on it and then paste it at, say, Amazon)
Perhaps I am assuming too much, that Bush actually does have the Mandate. At the very least, as your comment points out, these disasters may tell us something about how it may have been lost, if not precisely when.

[Allan Lian]

It is truly amazing to read yet another accurate answer from the Yi. Perhaps your sincerity has already become apparent therefore the Yi likes to talk to you, Sam.

Since you have covered the main essence of the prognostication, one just adds in a bit more for discussion purposes that of the relationships in the three lines change.

One suggests that the first line of Chun represents the new FEMA director, the second line to represent the Homeland Security Secretary and the fifth line, the US President. Since the first line changes, the helper is about to be or has already been appointed by the President. The problem depicted is therefore not with the helper but the chain of command and the attitude of the President. If the three parties are not persevering, it could lead to unemployment (which confirms your interpretation about the President's precarious position).

This is a time of chaos created by the storm and the people are already grumbling because of recent failures of Government. There is a real need of someone strong to capture the people’s hearts and awaken their enthusiasm to work towards the recovery. But this general needs full authority and the confidence of the ruler to perform his duties well.

The second line is depicted as weak and could possibly hinder the recovery process; probably making the recovery period longer than necessary (in line with the depiction of ten years). Therefore the Yi advises that this friend’s help should not be accepted.

The commentary in the fifth line fits the President’s current position to a T:
“An individual is in a position in which he cannot so express his good intentions that they will actually take shape and be understood. Other people interpose and distort everything he does.” And Yi’s advice to the US President, “He should then be cautious and proceed step by step. He must not try to force the consummation of a great undertaking, because success is possible only when general confidence already prevails.” [W/B]

And who else can help him restore the confidence of the people? None other than the person in the first line of Hexagram 3 who later becomes the second line ruler of Hexagram 7 Shih / The Army and reports directly to the real ruler (the President) in line five.

In conclusion, the Yi is advising that FEMA, if it is leading the recovery and rebuilding process, be brought back up to ministerial level and no longer be part of Homeland Security. This not only shortens the chain of command, it gives fully authority to the new head of FEMA to employ assistants and enable him to properly perform his duties in the field. Of course a righteous general having the full confidence of his humane ruler, usually gets the job done if left unhindered.

Obviously, similar to your previous divination on New Orleans, the US President will decide what he wants to do with his men and his rule. It is his right. And we remain blameless.