Ariel Sharon, Prime Minister of Israel, is in his last days. Whatever happens to him medically, his political life is certainly over. What might this mean for Mideast politics? I put that question to the I Ching and the answer is: while there are chances for "gradual progress," "obstruction" is the likely trend in the near future. More below the jump.
The specifics of the divination are Hexagram 53, "Development (Gradual Progress)," 
with a moving line in the sixth position, thus tending in the direction of Hexagram 39, "Obstruction."
I must say that when I started to read Hexagram 53, I thought this was going to be a fairly positive prediction. The Judgment and Image talk of steady progress toward significant goals, like enacting the proper social ceremonies leading toward a marriage:
This principle of gradual development can be applied to other situations as well; it is always applicable where it is a matter of correct relationships of co-operation, as for instance in the appointment of an official. The development must be allowed to take its proper course. Hasty action would be unwise. This is also true, finally, of any effort to exert influence on others, for here too the essential factor is a correct way of development through cultivation of one's own personality. No influence such as that exerted by agitators has a lasting effect.
These thoughts seem well aimed at Israeli politicians. They counsel sober and steady reaction to Sharon's passing. This suggests that established processes of political succession should be allowed to unfold and that the national elections, scheduled for March, should go forward. Neither appears "hasty," and both reflect a measured and stable response. Sharon's impending death should not be defined as a domestic political crisis that requires some sort of emergency action.
Also, the reading is pointing out to Israeli leaders not to be swayed by "agitators," of which there are obviously many. I interpret this to mean that the new Prime Minister should not be swayed by either right-wing Israeli settlers calling for a return to Gaza and an uncompromising stance on the West Bank, or by Palestinian militants who may well see this as an opportunity to attack Israel. It will be hard a road to keep to, fending off virulent ethnic nationalisms on both sides, but the Hexagram suggests that, with the right kind of leader, progress is possible.
And this optimism is reinforced by the pure yang line in the sixth position, which represents a culmination of "gradual progress," and a virtual veneration of a great leader (Sharon?):
Thus the life of a man who has perfected himself is a bright light for the people of the earth, who look up to him as an example.
I should add that this is not my personal view. Sharon was, in my opinion, so brutal and obdurate in his politics that it is hard to see how he had "perfected himself" in the manner implied by the I Ching. But my opinion is not what matters here, but the oracle's.
The move toward Hexagram 39 shatters the optimism of gradual progress, however. "Obstruction" paints a bleak picture, caught between a immovable mountain and an uncrossable abyss, which may be a fair depiction of contemporary Mideast politics. It is a time not for bold action and forward movement, but for retreat and introspection. Perhaps the obstacles can be overcome in the future but,for now, they are insuperable. Perhaps if leaders on both sides of the Israel/Palestine conflict can follow the I Ching's advice, a way might be found:
Difficulties and obstructions throw a man back upon himself. While the inferior man seeks to put the blame on other persons, bewailing his fate, the superior man seeks the error within himself, and through this introspection the external obstacle becomes for him an occasion for inner enrichment and education.
This was certainly not Sharon's style. So, maybe, the I Ching is telling us that what the Mideast needs after Sharon is a non-Sharon. A continuation of Sharon-like belligerence is more likely to fail. We'll see.
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