Richard, The Peking Duck, links to an op-ed written by my old friend Lin Chong Pin on China's strategy toward Taiwan. Lin's main point is that China has decided to downplay its military threats against Taiwan and pursue a wide variety of peaceful approaches to draw the island closer to the mainland:
The danger facing Taiwan now is that of a frog being lulled to sleep in a pot of gradually heating water. The United States could devote too many resources to preparing for a war with China while underestimating China's non-military challenges, such as economic and cultural encroachments on the island.
And Lin concludes with an allusion to an American president:
In China's strategic writings these days, its growing military capabilities are meant to "be prepared but preferably not used" - a line reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick."
If not attentive to the current trends, both Washington and Taipei could find themselves preparing for a contingency no longer on the horizon.
He could have just as easily ended with a reference to Sun Tzu, who he knows well. The PRC approach he describes is in keeping with the "winning without fighting" doctrine of Sun Tzu. And I am sure that Lin would argue that to meet this challenge Taiwan and the US should abandon the old contingencies and find ways of attacking the PRCs actual strategy. Taiwan needs to fight soft power with soft power.
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