Two articles in People's Daily raise some interesting questions when read together.
First, we have "China expects communities to take more care of elderly people," which tells us:
China is encouraging communities to provide services for the
elderly, as pressure grows on retirement homes and individual families.
"Community services can be easily organized in neighborhoods
where residents have friendly relations and tend to help each other,"
said Guo Ping, deputy director of the China Research Center on Aging.
He suggested communities set up special teams to pay regular
visits to the elderly at home, offering cleaning, laundry and medical
care services.
Which is made to sound like a culturally appropriate social benefit:
Deeply influenced by the traditional value that children should
support their elderly parents and guarantee them a happy life, many
Chinese seniors are reluctant to leave home and live in retirement
homes.
However, with many Chinese families now having a "four
parents, one couple and one child" structure, young people are
shouldering a heavier burden supporting the elderly.
Experts recommend that senior citizens live at home and be
taken care of by their communities. It is a solution that suits China's
situation and its traditions.
Perhaps. But this may simply be putting a Confucian gloss on an unwieldy modern problem. I have a sneaking suspicion that "communities" will be under the same kinds of economic pressure as "children" - people having to devote more time to work to earn enough to secure basic living necessities in a growing economy with increasing costs and competitiveness - and that this nice-sounding idea will not get very far in dealing with the exploding issue of China's aging society. And that is the topic of the next article: "Who will support China's development in 50 years?"
This makes Japan, with its rapidly graying society, a vision of China's future:
Researchers Cai Chuang and Wang Meiyan from CASS found that between
2000 and 2030, the average age of the labor force would also increase.
It's predicted that in 2013, the number of workers as a percentage of
the population will peak at 72.1 percent. But the actual size of the
working population will peak at 997 million in 2016. According to UN
estimates, the number of Chinese people of working age will gradually
fall below the world average. These estimates indicate that China's
outlook is not optimistic. China will lose its economic advantage of
cheap labor in the near future.
Unfortunately, China's demand for labor will continue to grow
for some time. It is the labor-intensive manufacturing and processing
industries that have given China such an advantage in the world
economy. Without labor, these industries will collapse. China needs a
long time if it is to change its mode of production mode and as yet
there haven't been any signs of readjustment.
In fact CASS's report says that there is no need to wait for
the problem to actually develop, as it has already been anticipated.
Since 2004, China's most vital development area, the Pearl River Delta,
has experienced a shortage of labor. The Yangtze River Delta has also
had this problem.
So, we have two problems: taking care of old folks and maintaining the labor pool. One answer seems obvious: put the old folks to work! There might be even more problem squaring this with Confucian ethics, but, hey, necessity is the mother of invention (is there a Chinese saying for that?).
At first, I thought this was just a goofy idea, a bad joke at the expense of Confucians. But the more I think about it...
With technology changing the nature of work more and more, why shouldn't we expect that older people, even those with certain physical limitations, have the capacity to maintain busy, productive work lives? And why shouldn't we expect that many older folks might want to have some sort of job, something to keep them busy and earn them some money? So, in fact, I think Mr. Guo should expand his horizons. Why not an elderly training program to teach people how to use computers and the internet? Why not an elderly call center? It may not be cut-throat manufacturing, but it could be productive.
Now, if only I could find a passage in the Analects that would justify keeping elders on the job (my books are in the office, but I'll see what I can come up with later...).
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