This story ran on the front pages of both the NYT and the WaPo this morning:
The war in Iraq has become a primary recruitment vehicle for violent Islamic extremists, motivating a new generation of potential terrorists around the world whose numbers may be increasing faster than the United States and its allies can reduce the threat, U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded.
A 30-page National Intelligence Estimate completed in April cites the "centrality" of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and the insurgency that has followed, as the leading inspiration for new Islamic extremist networks and cells that are united by little more than an anti-Western agenda. It concludes that, rather than contributing to eventual victory in the global counterterrorism struggle, the situation in Iraq has worsened the U.S. position, according to officials familiar with the classified document.
From an ancient Chinese philosophical perspective, many things could be said here. We could discuss the ways in which this reflects the Taoist notion that "trying to take hold of the world and improve it" is bound to fail. Or, we could delve into the general Confucian-Mencian anti-war argument. Or, even, turn to Han Fei Tzu, who believed that foreign policy is not the way to secure domestic political dominance (are you listening Mr. Rove?). But I want to bring Sun Tzu into the conversation.
Sun Tzu understood well the importance of intelligence gathering and analysis for the conduct of foreign policy and war (excerpt here is from the Giles translation):
Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is FOREKNOWLEDGE.
1. That is, knowledge of the enemy's dispositions, and what he means to do.
Now this foreknowledge cannot be elicited from spirits; it cannot be obtained inductively from experience, nor by any deductive calculation.
Knowledge of the enemy's dispositions can only be obtained from other men.
He obviously had a preference for "human intelligence" (I wonder what he would have to say about the advanced technology - "national technical means" - available today), but he knew that using spies was a complex and difficult business:
Spies cannot be usefully employed without a certain intuitive sagacity.
They cannot be properly managed without benevolence and straightforwardness.
Without subtle ingenuity of mind, one cannot make certain of the truth of their reports.
And it is here that the Bush administration has failed so utterly and damaged US interests so fundamentally. Intelligence was politicized and manipulated in the run-up to the Iraq war. Virtually all of the key points that rationalized the US invasion - the existence of WMD stockpiles; the ties with al-Qaeda - were false. The Bush administration has attempted to blame the CIA and other agencies; but the fundamental failure was the President's, along with the Vice President and Secretary of Defense. They wanted to go to war against Iraq and when the intelligence did not offer sufficient support they twisted and spun unsubstantiated assertions to invent a rationale. This is not to say the CIA is blameless - George "Slam Dunk" Tenet certainly bears some responsibility. But it is the center of the executive branch that pushed the country to war, regardless of the facts.
So, now we have this new report on how the Iraq war has exacerbated global terrorism. Some may suggest that this National Intelligence Estimate is pay-back of sorts: the professional spies are hitting back at Bush, undermining the Iraq effort just in time for the Fall election, in retaliation for the damage the White House did to the intelligence community earlier. The timing of the leaks to both the NYT and the WaPo certainly suggest a political motive.
Beyond the politics, however, we should also recognize that this could be an effort by exasperated intelligent professionals to stop the awful national damage that Bush has done. He - and Cheney and Rumsfeld - have already created a deep, deep problem in Iraq. They must be constrained before they can expand their failures elsewhere: to Iran, North Korea, where-ever.
The political push-back on the part of the intelligent establishment tells us just how bad a president Bush has been. As Sun Tzu might point out, he does not possess the "intuitive sagacity" or "ingenuity of mind" to manage effectively the subtle play of intelligence and spies. He has misused intelligence to mire the US in a costly and morally degrading war. And he will almost certainly not do the right thing: which in this case would be an explicit acceptance of the failures in Iraq and an honest consideration of how to improve the situation. He will not do that, however. He will try to find a way to politically crush anyone associated with the truth that Iraq has made the global war on terror worse.
And that is how lost wars stay lost.
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