Bush's impending senseless escalation of the Iraq war runs squarely against Sun Tzu's thinking (I know, lots of Sun Tzu this week: it's on my mind from my class...). It seems that high level military planners are doubtful of the "surge" idea:
When President Bush goes before the American people tonight to outline his new strategy for Iraq, he will be doing something he has avoided since the invasion of Iraq in March 2003: ordering his top military brass to take action they initially resisted and advised against.
My sense is that Bush is just lost: he cannot face the terrible defeat he has brought upon the country and he cannot create an effective way out of Iraq. The outcome is a politically motivated performance, a last gasp effort to salvage something of his historical legacy. The greatest tragedy is that more people will die - Iraqis and Americans - in this violent denouement of Bush's debacle.
Sun Tzu would be horrified. The final escalation is an example of a "ruler" meddling in military operations to no good effect, something Sun Tzu warns against:
Now there are three ways in which a ruler can bring misfortune upon his army:
- When ignorant that the army should not advance, to order an advance or ignorant that it should not retire, to order a retirement. This is described as "hobbling the army."
- When ignorant of military affairs, to participate in their administration. This causes the officers to be perplexed.
- When ignorant of command problems to share in the exercise of responsibilities. This engenders doubts in the minds of the officers.
If the army is confused and suspicious, neighboring rulers will cause trouble. This is what is meant by the saying: "a confused army leads to another's victory."
Griffith (81-82)
That last line leaves us with a grim prediction: Bush's ignorance and meddling will serve the interests of other states. The leaders of Iran must be smiling...
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