I am back in my office at Williams in rural northwestern Massachusetts. A far cry from the intense urban-ness of Taibei and Hong Kong. But the great advantage of this place, for me, is that it is home.
The interminable lay over in LA was made more pleasant by the NY Giants unexpected victory over Green Bay in the NFC conference championship. I was perched at the bar in a Chili's restaurant, with more Packers fans in attendance than Giants supporters. I defended New York's honor through the afternoon and was as surprised as everyone else by the outcome.
Of course, now the problem is the apparently invincible New England Patriots. How can the Giants possibly overcome them? The answer can be found in that greatest of all strategists: Sun Tzu. I will not be as brash as last year, when I predicted a Bears victory, which did not happen. But with insights from Sun Tzu we can imagine how the Giants might be able to win.
First, let's recognize the strategic situation:
One who has few must prepare against the enemy; one who has many makes the enemy prepare against him (6.16)
The Giants are clearly at the disadvantage. As the commentators on TV like to say: the Patriots have many weapons. Their quarterback in poised and efficient; their receivers precise and fast; their running game effective. They have much more offensive power than the questionable Giants. And their defense has played well also. There are few weaknesses for the Patriots, reflected in their undefeated season thus far. So, they have "many," the Giants "few," and New York must prepare against them - i.e. we must carefully assess the full range of their power and work hard to find a winning approach.
There are two points to keep in mind. First:
Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of of victory in the attack.
One defends when his strength is inadequate; he attacks when it is abundant. (4.5,6)
The Giants defense is obviously stronger than its offense. They stopped the Green Bay running game on Sunday, and the Packers could not do well with screen passes. That left short underneath pass routes, which Favre took advantage of, and the occasional longer pass. To win against New England, the Giants must maintain their strong defense. They cannot let themselves be distracted from their primary strengths against the run and rushing the passer. Much will rely on the defensive line and linebackers; they are absolutely the key for the Giants. If they do well, if they can stifle Maroney and harass Brady, they could create an opportunity for the Giants offense to control the ball and grind out a win. The Giants must make this a defensive struggle.
After all, the Patriots did not look good in the first half on Sunday. Brady made mistakes. They are not invincible; but the Giants must make themselves invincible through their defense.
The second point is this:
To be certain to take what you attack is to attack a place the enemy does not protect. To be certain to hold what you defend is to defend a place the enemy does not attack. (6.7)
I think this is especially true for the weak Giants offense, which must find ways of attacking what the Patriots do not protect. What might that entail? First, it will require Manning to avoid mistakes, as he has been able to do in the past couple of games. He cannot force throws into coverage - which would be attacking precisely what the enemy is protecting. He has to be able to look off the first or even second choices for passes and find the safety valve. With an aggressive Patriots defensive line and close coverage in the secondary, screen passes and dump offs to the running backs may work well. I just hope Jacobs can hold on to the ball when it is thrown to him.
This will also mean that Burris must occasionally be used as a decoy to draw close coverage or double coverage. He was brilliant on Sunday and in the Super Bowl he will have to make some big catches. But the Patriots will be keying on him. He will be their top priority on pass coverage. And the Giants will have to exploit their attention there and find other receiver options. It is critical, then, that Toomer not drop catchable balls; and the rookie Steve Smith will have to step it up.
Finally, to attack what the Patriots do not protect will require some trick plays. Not a lot. But some reverses or misdirection plays will help spring the Giants offense into the open. After all, Sun Tzu tells us that war, and football, is all about deception.
It will certainly be difficult, but not impossible. The Giants remind me of the 2001 Baltimore Ravens, who won the Super Bowl against the Giants that year. They won on defense and turn overs with a weak quarterback who did not make any big mistakes. That's what the Giants need this year.
And don't forget week 16's game against the Pats. The Giants only lost by 3 points, and I would argue they are markedly better now than they were a month ago. Go Giants!
Posted by: Pan | January 22, 2008 at 11:33 AM