We are on the cusp of the end of the nomination process for the Democratic Party candidate for President. It looks all but certain that Obama will have a majority of all delegates today or tomorrow (depending upon when certain "super-delegates" announce their positions) and he will be the presumptive nominee of the the party (as he has been, for all intents and purposes, since February), awaiting full and formal authorization at the convention in August.
It is easy to forget that this is an extraordinary upset. Last fall, everyone assumed Hillary was a shoo-in. She had the name recognition, the money, the organization, the prospects of a very weak incumbent party. It was hers to lose. And, in the end, she lost it. I do not buy into the "she lost because of sexism" argument. Yes, of course, there is sexism in American politics. But there is also racism, with which Obama has had to contend. It would be too crude to suggest that the one perfectly counteracts the others; but it is true that each has been an issue. I think what really made the difference was two things: 1) Obama's organization, or his "ground game" as the political analysts refer to it. He had more committed people on the ground in more states ready to contest every primary and, most importantly, caucus. Clinton's people assumed she was going to win on super-Tuesday, and when she didn't they were caught out without an effective organization or and effective strategy. That was killer for them.
But 2) I think Obama's freshness and energy and appeal also helped carry the day. He breaks the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton repetition. His poise and his ability to find the words to capture a moment, to draw in large numbers of people around him and connect to them, makes for effective campaigning. Of course, he will not change politics as much as he and his most ardent supporters may want. But no one every really changes politics all that much. What he might be able to accomplish, however, is to bring a new sense of possibility to American. And, most importantly, present a new face of the United States to the world, something that is desperately needed after the disastrous foreign policy failures of the past eight years.
However remarkable the Obama candidacy is, we should keep in mind that it was foretold by the I Ching. As I reminded readers in February, two years ago I asked the I Ching if Hillary should run for president, and the answer was "no." Here is a portion of that reading that might be apt today:
The further commentary on the "service of a king" portion of this line points to a subordinate political position:
If one enters the service of a superior, one can avoid conflict only by not seeking works for the sake of prestige. It is enough if the work is done: let the honor go to the other.
This sounds like the deference of a vice-president, something Hillary would probably chafe at.
I think a vice-presidential offer is unlikely. But the larger point is that she must now acknowledge him as the candidate, whether that happens tonight or tomorrow or next week. And, then, she has to work for him and with him, not just for the good of the party, but for her own political good as well.
Remember: the I Ching called it over two years ago!
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