One of the benefits of teaching is the new ideas that are generated in conversation with students. That happened the other day. My class was discussing Sun Tzu and the impending US withdrawal from Iraq, focusing on a recent report from the Center for American Progress. In the course of the exchange one student came up with a novel point, one that I think goes to one of the key assertions of the report.
The CAP report argues that the US military presence in Iraq creates a disincentive for domestic policy-makers to make the hard choices that genuine political reconciliation requires:
The U.S. military presence in Iraq is not politically neutral. It creates a distinct set of incentives for political actors that directly work against the reconciliation that U.S. diplomats try to promote. U.S. military dominance and support absolves the major political actors from having to make the tough decisions necessary to achieve a power-sharing equilibrium.
Thus, they argue, an American withdrawal is more likely to facilitate an ultimate political settlements, something that the "surge" has failed to achieve.
One student in my class argued that Sun Tzu would likely agree with this. The obvious Art of War idea to support that sort of claim would be the various statements that tell commanders to avoid protracted warfare, which raises economic costs and saps political support for a campaign, outcomes that are manifest in Iraq. But the student brought in another idea, referring to passage 11.5 (Griffith translation):
Set the troops to their tasks without imparting your designs; use them to gain advantage without revealing the dangers involved. Throw them into a perilous situation and they survive; put them in death ground and they will live. For when the army is placed in such a situation it can snatch victory from defeat.
Sun Tzu is here talking about the psychological dynamics of commanding one's own troops. He is saying that a commander should consciously place his men in difficult circumstances, even "death ground" (i.e. places where there is no way out except to fight like hell), because their natural instinct to live will spur them on to greater effort and achievement. This passage can also be applied to the political situation in Iraq: when the US leaves, Iraqi political leaders will be on their own, in a more "perilous situation," perhaps even "death ground," and thus will be forced to work toward some sort of political settlement. As long as the US remains, those Iraqi leaders do not have to face the difficulties and can put off the day of political reckoning.
Of course what matters is which sort of political settlement is pursued. It is possible, maybe likely, that some Iraqi leaders, especially those now in power, will use violent means against their political rivals. Indeed, there would seem to be a high probability of an increase in violence when the US leaves. But that is the nature of the situation. The civil war(s) have been suspended for a time while various factions wait for what they know is the inevitable US withdrawal. They avoid political agreements that might create institutions or practices that could limit their power, in favor of a fight in the not so distant future that could yield them a better political position. There is a chance that a stable political settlement could emerge without high levels of fighting. Yet if some groups, Sunnis for example, feel that they are being shut out, that they are on "death ground," the violence could be quite bad.
Given the overall situation, however, I think the student is right. The high costs of the war and the strategic disadvantage it has created for the US (producing a regional context in which Iranian power is very much magnified) would lead Sun Tzu to agree with disengagement. And if the hope is for stabilization of Iraqi politics, Sun Tzu would also likely agree that a US exit, by placing Iraqi leaders in a more "perilous situation," would serve that end.
I hope your students apply Sun Tzu to Afghanistan too and come up with some insights.
Posted by: gmoke | January 23, 2009 at 01:41 AM
"...because their natural instinct to live will spur them on to greater effort and achievement."
IMO, this post, and your "More Taoist Parenting" post, have crossover themes and truths. Keep the training wheels on the bicycle too long, and the rider won't ever know if he can do without them.
Posted by: sophmom | January 24, 2009 at 12:03 PM
I would not have made that connection if you had not mentioned it here. Thanks.
Posted by: Sam Crane | January 24, 2009 at 02:58 PM