The news this morning, that Chen, with his family, may be able to travel to the US to study at NYU, is good. Let's hope it works out. But, as we have most chaotically learned in the past 48 hours, the details matter. There are still multiple points at which expectations could break down, and Chen and his supporters will not be able to truly breath easy until he steps off the plane in New York.
Some hopeful signs include visits by US embassy officials with Chen at Chaoyang hospital, where they report he is receiving "excellent" medical attention for three bone fractures. The same source (Richard Buangan's Twitter) also reports that Chinese officials have been talking to Chen about the abuses heaped upon him by Linyi officials. If those responsible for Chen's mistreatment are finally brought to heel, that would be a truly significant outcome. But, again, we'll have to wait and see how far that goes...
Beyond the particulars of Chen's security and travel plans, various political questions remain.
The Chinese media is now starting to frame the story, and China Media Project has a good first take on these efforts. As suggested by this excerpt from a Beijing Daily editorial, they are laying the basis for ultimately tagging Chen as a traitor:
. . The United States and other Western countries have paid particular attention to Chen Guangcheng for some time. It is through the packaging of the United States and Western media that this so-called “rights defense hero” has been marked as a striking political symbol, and has become established as representative figure opposing society and opposing the system. But looking at again at the situation, it is clear that Chen Guangcheng cannot represent very many. Who he really represents is the backstage boss, namely the interests of the hostile forces of the West. Chen Guangcheng has already become a tool and pawn by which politicians in the United States blacken China. . .
It is not too far from "tool and pawn" of the US to traitor. I expect that to become the central theme of the official narrative on Chen. What is ironic here is that Chen is precisely the opposite. He is not someone who is "opposing society and opposing the system." He has attempted to use the principles and procedures provided by the Center's own project of expanding the "rule of law." What he has done is not oppose the system but reveal a fundamental flaw in the system: the ways in which the expansion of "rule of law" is obstructed by local level Party power. This is a big problem. It is even back-handedly recognized by an English-language op-ed in The Global Times:
Admittedly, today's China has some loopholes in grass-roots governance.
There are systems and laws in China, but the sense of the law at the grass-roots level is still weak.
Some local governments and officials act based on local policies and practices rather than laws.
Chen fights against the local government over forceful abortion and sterilization. As a densely populated province, Shandong has higher pressures on implementing the one-child policy.
In Chen's hometown, Linyi, a city in the southeast of Shandong, there are disputes between the villagers and local governments in implementing the one-child policy, and local officials may adopt some forceful ways to stop those breaching the policy.
However, this is just a local case, an interlude for China in realizing the rule of law. If Chen had stuck to proper ways to help people safeguarding rights, this would have contributed to improving grass-roots governance and achieving social development.
The problem is not "loopholes." The problem is systemic. Chen was using the law to redress local problems, he was sticking to "proper ways." It was the local Linyi officials who used their power to repress him. That is the problem. And it has been a problem throughout the reform period (for detailed stories of local abuses, based on extensive reportage from the 2000s, see: Chen Guidi and Wu Juntao, Will the Boat Sink the Water? review here).
Sadly, the structural power dynamics (party domination of the legal system) that gave rise to the Chen Guangcheng case, will not change easily or soon. Thus, even if Chen is able to travel to NYU, should he return sometime in the future, it is virtually inevitable that he will again be engaged in precisely the same struggle that created this most recent dramatic series of events. And I am sure he is well aware that his struggle for a more humane and just legal system in China is for the long term, regardless of what happens in the next few months or years.
It is also too early to tell how all this is playing out at the highest levels of the CCP. No doubt this case is becoming enmeshed in the power transition now underway, to be completed this fall, involving the highest political positions in China: the Standing Committee of the Politburo. A farily common analytic line is that there may be splits among the current Standing Committee, with Wen Jiabao viewed as a more moderate voice, perhaps willing to compromise and work for some form of political reform versus the likes of Zhou Yongkang, who oversees the security apparatus and is assumed to take a harder line. It is really impossible to know for sure how this is playing out. It might be best, however, to understand it as a dynamic process. There is no one end point where one side or another can claim clear victory. Rather, every aspect of the on-going Chen case will be shaped by current differences at the top levels of power and struggles to shape the future composition of the Standing Committee. Thus, every facet of Chen's situation - getting a visa; investigating Linyi officials; media representations; permission to return - will be subject to change depending upon how higher level power dynamics are playing out.
So, hold on to your hats. This saga is far from over....
(cartoon from NYT)
USA should help its own citizen illegally blocked in China for 4 years come home!!!
https://www.change.org/petitions/help-my-father-dr-zhicheng-hu-come-home
Posted by: Mary Wilson | May 04, 2012 at 10:17 PM